Another pandemic could be more contagious and more lethal than Covid, one of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine inventors has warned

Another pandemic could be more contagious and more lethal than Covid, one of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine inventors has warned.

Dame Sarah Gilbert claimed the advances made in research against fighting deadly viruses ‘must not be lost’.

Delivering the 44th Richard Dimbleby lecture, scheduled to be shown on the BBC on Monday night, she said: ‘This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihoods. 

‘The next one could be worse.It could be more contagious, or more lethal, or both.

‘The advances we have made, and the knowledge we have gained, must not be lost.’ 

Dame Sarah is credited with saving millions of lives through her role in developing the vaccine. 

It comes as Britain’s wave grew by more than 50 per cent in a day and overall cases rose by 16 per cent in a week to 43,992 on Sunday.

The number of people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid also rose by 5.8 per cent from 51 last week.  

Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert, one of the creators of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, has warned that another pandemic will threaten human lives and could be 'more contagious' and 'more lethal'

Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert, one of the creators of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, has warned that another pandemic will threaten human lives and could be ‘more contagious’ and ‘more lethal’

Dame Sarah, a vaccinologist at the University of Oxford and whose team developed the Covid vaccine now used in 170 counties, added that we must take heed of the research and knowledge gained in tackling coronavirus.

She said: ‘We cannot allow a situation where we have gone through all we have gone through, and then find that the enormous economic losses we have sustained mean that there is still no funding for pandemic preparedness. 

‘Just as we invest in armed forces and intelligence and diplomacy to defend against wars, we must invest in people, research, manufacturing and institutions to defend against pandemics.’ 

On the new Omicron variant, Dame Sarah said it contains mutations known to boost transmissibility of the virus.

And data suggests the strain, which is behind an explosion of cases in South Africa, could be better able to evade vaccines and the immune system. 

She added, though, that this ‘does not necessarily mean reduced protection against severe disease and death’.

Dame Sarah said: ‘Until we know more, we should be cautious, and take steps to slow down the spread of this new variant.’ 

Covid has killed 5.2million people around the world since the start of the pandemic in 2019, according to figures from John Hopkins University.

The virus was estimated kill one out of 100 people it infected.

However, the invention and rollout of vaccines has since reduced this to around one in 1,000, making it about as lethal as seasonal flu.  

Covid is far less deadly than Ebola which kills 40 per cent of those it infects.Ebola is much less contagious than Covid or flu however, being spread by direct contact with an infected person’s, or a deceased person’s, body fluids. 

In terms of pandemic history, Covid is still a minor player compared to some of the diseases which have spread around the globe.

Covid has killed an estimated 5.2million people around the globe since it emerged in early 2019. In comparisons pandemics such as the Spanish Flu in the first half of the 1900s and the Black Death plague in medieval times had far greater death tolls

Covid has killed an estimated 5.2million people around the globe since it emerged in early 2019.In comparisons pandemics such as the Spanish Flu in the first half of the 1900s and the Black Death plague in medieval times had far greater death tolls

Covid has killed an estimated 5.2million people globally since it emerged out of China in early 2019.This is roughly 0.7 per cent of the global population of 7.9billion.

In comparison the Spanish Flu killed an estimated 45million people between 1918 and 1920, about 2.5 per cent of global population the time.

Both Covid and the Spanish Flu pale when compared to the Black Death which killed about 200million people, just over half of the world’s population in the 1300s.It took 200 years for Europe’s population to return to pre-pandemic levels following this pandemic.  

On Saturday it was announced all travellers arriving in England will be required to take a  pre-departure test from Tuesday.

Ministers said the test was intended to be a temporary measure following new data showing an increase in the number of cases of the new strain linked to foreign travel.

Meanwhile Nigeria is being added to the Government’s travel red list in a blow for those wanting to see family over the festive period.

 

Britain’s Omicron outbreak grows by more than 50% in a day: Ванпачман интернетте оқыңыз 86 new cases take total to 246 as scientist warns its ‘too late’ to halt spread and overall Covid cases rise by 16% in week to 43,992

James Gant for MailOnline 

The number of new Omicron cases reported in the UK has risen by 86 bringing the total cases to 246 – an increase of more than 50 per cent in the space of a day.

The UK Health Security Agency, who publish the figures, said 18 of the new cases are in Scotland taking their total to 48. 

The remaining 68 cases were recorded in England, according to the UKHSA.

Meanwhile, a further 43,992 Covid cases were recorded in the UK this week, an increase of 6,311 on last week’s figures.

The increase marks a 16.7 per cent rise since last Sunday while a further 54 deaths were recorded.

The number of people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid rose by 5.8 per cent from 51 last week.

In South Africa the Omicron explosion of cases continued, with 11,125 new infections recorded, down on the 16,000+ numbers of recent days due to a weekend lag in reporting but still up 289% compared with last Sunday.

It comes as a leading scientist warned Britain has left it ‘too late’ to halt the spread of the  super-variant.

Professor Mark Woolhouse said bringing in new curbs on travel was ‘a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted’.

The Edinburgh University epidemiologist said it was ‘spreading pretty rapidly’ and could become the world’s dominant strain.

On Saturday, it was announced all travellers arriving in England will be required to take a pre-departure test from Tuesday.

Ministers said the test was intended to be a temporary measure following new data showing an increase in the number of cases of the new strain linked to foreign travel.

Meanwhile Nigeria is being added to the Government’s travel red list in a blow for those wanting to see family over the festive period.

It comes as the US also battles its own war against the new variant, with a breakout linked to a  anime convention last month.

A man who tested positive for  after travelling to the city said more than a dozen of his friends who also attended contracted the virus.

Professor Woolhouse, who is a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling which advises the Government, said the measures would not make a ‘material difference’ as the variant is already ‘spreading pretty rapidly’.

He told BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday: ‘I think that may be a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

‘If Omicron is here in the UK, and it certainly is, if there’s community transmission in the UK, and it certainly looks that way, then it’s that community transmission that will drive a next wave.

‘The cases that are being imported are important, we want to detect those and isolate any positive cases we find, as we would for any case anywhere.

‘But I think it’s too late to make a material difference to the course of the Omicron wave, if we’re going to have one.’

Meanwhile the president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine warned the NHS will be in a ‘very, very difficult position’ if the Omicron variant were to lead to a surge in hospital admissions.

Dr Katherine Henderson said hospitals were already struggling to cope as they enter winter.

‘It is pretty spectacularly bad now, it will get worse – and if the new variant becomes a thing in terms of numbers and translates into hospitals admissions we are going to be in a very, very difficult position,’ she said.

Professor Mark Woolhouse (pictured) said bringing in new curbs on travel was 'a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted'

Professor Mark Woolhouse (pictured) said bringing in new curbs on travel was ‘a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted’

‘We will always still be there.We still want patients to come but we do have to help people to understand that really at the moment the service is so stretched that an extra push could be very very difficult.’

The travel industry reacted with fury after the latest measures were announced, despite ministers insisting they were only ‘temporary’.

Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told Sky News’s Trevor Phillips On Sunday programme: ‘I know that is a burden for the travel industry but we have made huge, huge strides in this country.

‘We have got to take the measures targeted forensically to stop the new variant seeding in this country to create a bigger problem.

‘We have taken a balanced approach but we are always alert to extra risk that takes us back not forward.’

Prof Woolhouse said although the numbers of people with the Omicron variant are ‘still quite small’ and likely remain in the hundreds, they are ‘growing quite fast’.

But he insisted vaccinations will still be ‘very, very good’ at protecting against the new variant.

Official data shows that the proportion of positive Covid tests with a mutation synonymous with the highly-evolved strain is on the rise. Like Alpha, or the 'Kent variant', Omicron has a specific alteration which means it can be detected through PCR tests without the need for genomic sequencing. The proportion of positive tests in England with this so-called S-gene dropout has risen from 0.1 per cent in the past week to 0.3 per cent, the equivalent of one in 330. Scientists said the increase in S-gene dropouts suggests there could be hundreds of Omicron cases that are flying under the radar currently

Official data shows that the proportion of positive Covid tests with a mutation synonymous with the highly-evolved strain is on the rise.

Like Alpha, or the ‘Kent variant’, Omicron has a specific alteration which means it can be detected through PCR tests without the need for genomic sequencing. The proportion of positive tests in England with this so-called S-gene dropout has risen from 0.1 per cent in the past week to 0.3 per cent, the equivalent of one in 330.

Scientists said the increase in S-gene dropouts suggests there could be hundreds of Omicron cases that are flying under the radar currently 

Data in South Africa shows the R-rate has soared to over three per cent in recent weeks as Omicron took hold in Gauteng province

Data in South Africa shows the R-rate has soared to over three per cent in recent weeks as Omicron took hold in Gauteng province

Statistician Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter told Sky News’s Trevor Phillips On Sunday programme: ‘It’s a very difficult situation because we haven’t got a lot of data yet at all, almost nothing from this country about what the risks are.

 

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